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Peter H Larsen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Updated Estimates of the Remaining Market Potential of the U.S. ESCO Industry
2017Co-Authors: Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Jp Carvallo Bodelon, Sean Murphy, Elizabeth StuartAbstract:Author(s): Larsen, PH; Carvallo Bodelon, JP; Goldman, CA; Murphy, S; Stuart, E | Abstract: The Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering Energy and economic savings in the public and institutional buildings sector, primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. The ESCO industry often provides (or helps arrange) private sector financing to complete public infrastructure projects with little or no up-front cost to taxpayers. In 2014, total U.S. ESCO industry revenue was estimated at $5.3 billion. ESCOs expect total industry revenue to grow to $7.6 billion in 2017—a 13% annual growth rate from 2015-2017. Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) were asked by the U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) to update and expand our estimates of the remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO industry. We define remaining market potential as the aggregate amount of project investment by ESCOs that is technically possible based on the types of projects that ESCOS have historically implemented in the institutional, commercial, and industrial sectors using ESCO estimates of current market penetration in those sectors. In this analysis, we report U.S. ESCO industry remaining market potential under two scenarios: (1) a base case and (2) a case “unfettered” by market, bureaucratic, and regulatory barriers. We find that there is significant remaining market potential for the U.S. ESCO industry under both the base and unfettered cases. For the base case, we estimate a remaining market potential of $92-$201 billion ($2016). We estimate a remaining market potential of $190-$333 billion for the unfettered case. It is important to note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates for both the base and unfettered cases.
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u s Energy Service Company esco industry recent market trends
2016Co-Authors: Elizabeth Stuart, Peter H Larsen, Juan Pablo Carvallo, Charles Goldman, Donald GilliganAbstract:Author(s): Stuart, Elizabeth; Larsen, Peter H.; Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Goldman, Charles A.; Gilligan, Donald | Abstract: Key highlights from U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) Industry: Recent Market Trends • After more than two decades of year-over-year growth, ESCO industry revenues appeared to flatten between 2011 and 2014. ESCOs reported 2014 industry revenue of approximately $5.3 billion, the same as revenues reported in 2011. • Based on ESCOs’ 3-year growth projections, ESCOs expect total annual industry revenues to be approximately $7.6 billion for 2017, which equates to an average annual growth rate of ~13% for the three years 2015-2017. • Public and institutional market sectors accounted for 85% of industry revenue in 2014, which is consistent with previous study findings. • Performance contracting generated 75% ($3.7 billion) of industry revenue in 2014, which is somewhat higher than the 69% share for performance contracting reported in 2011 and 2008. Design-build projects contributed the next largest share of 2014 revenue (16% or ~$800 million), followed distantly by consulting Services (5%), onsite generation power purchase agreements (3%) and other activities (2%). • The share of industry revenue contributed by large ESCOs (annual Energy Services revenue of $300M or greater) declined somewhat between 2011 and 2014. Accordingly, medium-sized ESCOs as a group (annual revenue between $100M and $299M) increased market share from 29% in 2011 to 33% in 2014. Small ESCOs (annual revenue l$100M) increased market share slightly, from 15% in 2011 to 16% in 2014. • Share of industry revenues by ESCO size varies in different regions across the U.S. For example, large ESCOs accounted for 60-80% of industry revenues in West North Central, Middle Atlantic and New England regions. However, small ESCOs garnered nearly as much of the total market revenue as large ESCOs in the East North Central region. • New customers accounted for the majority of performance-based revenue during the years 2012-2014, with some variation by market segment. • ESCOs incorporate at least one of six key types of non-Energy benefit in performance-based projects across all market segments. • More than half of the ESCOs serving each market segment reported leveraging local, state or federal tax benefits in projects. • ESCOs reported use of various financing approaches for each market segment. Most federal projects were financed using term loans. Financed projects for state and local governments, universities, colleges and K-12 schools, and healthcare facilities made extensive use of leases and term loans. Bonds were used almost exclusively for state/local and K-12 schools projects. The authors discuss of a number of factors that may have contributed to the industry growth slowdown between 2011 and 2014.
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Estimating customer electricity and fuel savings from projects installed by the US ESCO industry
Energy Efficiency, 2015Co-Authors: Juan Pablo Carvallo, Peter H Larsen, Charles GoldmanAbstract:The US Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering substantial Energy and dollar savings in the public and institutional facilities sector, typically through the use of Energy savings performance contracts (ESPC). The ESCO industry has the opportunity to play an important role in achieving demand-side Energy efficiency under the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Clean Power Plan. The EPA considered demand-side Energy efficiency as a compliance strategy for proposed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards under section 111 (d) of the Clean Air Act. To date, there has been little or no research in the public domain to estimate electricity or fuel savings for the entire US ESCO industry. Estimating these savings levels is a foundational step in order to determine total avoided GHG emissions from demand-side Energy efficiency measures installed by US ESCOs. We find that on average, 66 % of total Energy savings are in the form of electricity, but that in more comprehensive projects, almost 50 % of savings are produced from fuel resources. Overall, we estimate that active US ESCO industry projects generated about 34 TWh of electricity savings in 2012. About 15 TWh of these electricity savings were for municipal, local, and state government facilities; universities/colleges; K-12 schools; and healthcare (MUSH) facilities customers who did not rely on utility customer-funded Energy efficiency programs. We extend the electricity analysis to estimate total Energy savings and find that the US ESCO industry saved ∼224 million MMBtu in 2012 or ∼1 % of the total US commercial building Energy consumption.
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a method to estimate the size and remaining market potential of the u s esco Energy Service Company industry
Energy, 2014Co-Authors: Elizabeth Stuart, Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Donald GilliganAbstract:This study presents a method to estimate the market investment potential for ESPC (Energy-saving performance contracts) and annual blended Energy savings remaining in buildings typically addressed by U.S. ESCOs (Energy Service companies). We define ESCOs as companies for whom performance-based contracting is a core business activity. The market potential analysis incorporates market penetration estimates provided by industry experts in late 2012, data on U.S. building stock typically addressed by ESCOs, and typical project investment costs from a database of 4000 þ projects. ESCO industry revenue growth significantly outpaced U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth during 2009e2011. We estimate that the remaining investment potential in facilities typically addressed by the ESCO industry ranges from ~$71 to $133 billion. Our analysis includes ESCO industry size and growth projections drawing on information from interviews with ESCO executives conducted in late 2012. The U.S. ESCO industry could grow in size from $6 billion in 2013 to ~$7.5 billion by 2014, but this growth is contingent on enabling policies. The U.S. ESCO industry is similar in size to the ESCO industries in Germany, France, and China. Our estimation approach could be adapted for other countries with the caveat that ESCO industry definitions and revenue reporting practices vary across countries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008
Energy Policy, 2014Co-Authors: Peter H LarsenAbstract:The U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where Energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a ?top-down? approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a ?bottom-up? analysis of a database of ~;;3,250 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of a severe economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7percent per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues were about $4.1 billion in 2008 and ESCOs anticipate accelerated growth through 2011 (25percent per year). We found that 2,484 ESCO projects in our database generated ~;;$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20percent of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990-2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated ~;;$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is evolving by installing more comprehensive and complex measures?including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance?but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.
Matthew. Hannon - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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demand pull government policies to support product Service system activity the case of Energy Service companies escos in the uk
Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015Co-Authors: Matthew. Hannon, Timothy J Foxon, William F GaleAbstract:Product-Service Systems (PSSs) constitute a family of Service-based business models designed to satisfy our societal needs in an economically and environmentally sustainable manner. To date however PSS application has remained niche due to a variety of critical barriers. This paper explores how ‘demand pull’ national government policies could support PSS activity by addressing these barriers and cultivating market demand. Lessons are drawn from a case study of how regulatory, economic incentive, informative and procurement policies have supported Energy Service Company (ESCo) activity in the UK; a sub-set of the PSS family focused on Energy Service provision. Subsequently five policy recommendations are presented to support PSS activity: (1) balancing economic incentives and regulatory disincentives; (2) promoting indirect policy support; (3) redesigning existing market structures; (4) promoting locally-led PSS activity; and (5) creating stable policy frameworks. The paper warns however that national government policy cannot easily address all PSS barriers, such as customer preferences, international developments, technological progress and inherent business model weaknesses, pointing to the need for other complementary solutions. Furthermore, other governance actors beside national government could also implement PSS supporting policies.
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uk local authority engagement with the Energy Service Company esco model key characteristics benefits limitations and considerations
Energy Policy, 2015Co-Authors: Matthew. Hannon, Ronan BoltonAbstract:Abstract This paper explores how some UK Local Authorities (LAs) have opted to engage with the Energy Service Company (ESCo) model in a bid to enhance their influence over local Energy system change and help them to deliver on their political ‘public good’ objectives. Three common approaches to LA ESCo model engagement are outlined including the: (1) LA owned ‘arm's-length’ model; (2) private sector owned concession agreement model; and (3) community owned and run model. The LA's decision to establish its own ESCo, or alternatively enter into a partnership with another, predominantly depends on: its willingness to expose itself to risk, the level of strategic control it desires and the resources it has at its disposal. However, the business case is contingent on the extent to which the national policy and regulatory framework facilitates and obligates LAs to play an active Energy governance role. Stronger alignment of local and national Energy agendas through communication and coordination between different governance actors could help to remove critical barriers to LA ESCo engagement and their wider Energy governance activities.
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the co evolutionary relationship between Energy Service companies and the uk Energy system implications for a low carbon transition
Energy Policy, 2013Co-Authors: Matthew. Hannon, Timothy J Foxon, William F GaleAbstract:The Energy Service Company (ESCo) business model is designed to reward businesses by satisfying consumers’ Energy needs at less cost and with fewer carbon emissions via Energy demand management and/or sustainable supply measures. In contrast, the revenue of the incumbent Energy Utility Company (EUCo) model is coupled with the sale of units of Energy, which are predominantly sourced from fossil fuels. The latter is currently dominant in the UK. This paper addresses two questions. First, why has the ESCo model traditionally been confined to niche applications? Second, what role is the ESCo model likely to play in the transition to a low-carbon UK Energy system? To answer these, the paper examines the core characteristics of the ESCo model, relative to the EUCo model. The paper then examines how ESCos have co-evolved with the various dimensions of the Energy system (i.e. ecosystems, institutions, user practices, technologies and business models) to provide insight into how ESCos might help to shape the future UK Energy system. We suggest that institutional and technological changes within the UK Energy system could result in a more favourable selection environment for ESCos, consequently enabling the ESCo model to proliferate at the expense of the EUCo model.
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Co-evolution of innovative business models and sustainability transitions : the case of the Energy Service Company (ESCo) model and the UK Energy system
Phd thesis University Leeds, 2012Co-Authors: Matthew. HannonAbstract:There is a growing consensus that the current Energy system we rely on is fundamentally unsustainable and that it will have to be transformed if we are to continue to satisfy our Energy needs in the future. At present we have a poor understanding of the role that the development and implementation of innovative business models, designed to satisfy our Energy needs in a sustainable manner, could play in facilitating a transition to a sustainable Energy system. To improve this understanding, this thesis develops an analytical framework that integrates co-evolutionary and business model theories, and applies this framework to analyse the case of the Energy Service Company (ESCo) business model and the wider UK Energy system. The thesis begins by presenting the core characteristics of the ESCo business model and its key variants; its strengths and weaknesses; and the factors that have constrained and enabled the uptake of this sustainable business model. It then examines the coevolutionary relationship the ESCo model shares with the UK Energy system to explain not only why the model has struggled to gain traction, compared to the incumbent Energy Utility Company (EUCo) model, but also the role the ESCo model could play in a transition to a sustainable UK Energy system. In light of the empirical investigation, the research finds that the development and adoption of the ESCo business model could play a valuable role in facilitating transitions to sustainable Energy systems. However, it is likely to struggle to gain traction due to ESCos’ poor fitness with the prevailing selection environment, which can in part be attributed to the causal influence of the unsustainable, incumbent EUCo model. Conversely, worsening ecosystem crises, the introduction of supportive regulation and positive feedbacks associated with the adoption of this model by new and incumbent system actors could help the ESCo model to proliferate and thus, have an important influence on the transition to a sustainable Energy system.
Charles Goldman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Updated Estimates of the Remaining Market Potential of the U.S. ESCO Industry
2017Co-Authors: Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Jp Carvallo Bodelon, Sean Murphy, Elizabeth StuartAbstract:Author(s): Larsen, PH; Carvallo Bodelon, JP; Goldman, CA; Murphy, S; Stuart, E | Abstract: The Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering Energy and economic savings in the public and institutional buildings sector, primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. The ESCO industry often provides (or helps arrange) private sector financing to complete public infrastructure projects with little or no up-front cost to taxpayers. In 2014, total U.S. ESCO industry revenue was estimated at $5.3 billion. ESCOs expect total industry revenue to grow to $7.6 billion in 2017—a 13% annual growth rate from 2015-2017. Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) were asked by the U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) to update and expand our estimates of the remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO industry. We define remaining market potential as the aggregate amount of project investment by ESCOs that is technically possible based on the types of projects that ESCOS have historically implemented in the institutional, commercial, and industrial sectors using ESCO estimates of current market penetration in those sectors. In this analysis, we report U.S. ESCO industry remaining market potential under two scenarios: (1) a base case and (2) a case “unfettered” by market, bureaucratic, and regulatory barriers. We find that there is significant remaining market potential for the U.S. ESCO industry under both the base and unfettered cases. For the base case, we estimate a remaining market potential of $92-$201 billion ($2016). We estimate a remaining market potential of $190-$333 billion for the unfettered case. It is important to note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates for both the base and unfettered cases.
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u s Energy Service Company esco industry recent market trends
2016Co-Authors: Elizabeth Stuart, Peter H Larsen, Juan Pablo Carvallo, Charles Goldman, Donald GilliganAbstract:Author(s): Stuart, Elizabeth; Larsen, Peter H.; Carvallo, Juan Pablo; Goldman, Charles A.; Gilligan, Donald | Abstract: Key highlights from U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) Industry: Recent Market Trends • After more than two decades of year-over-year growth, ESCO industry revenues appeared to flatten between 2011 and 2014. ESCOs reported 2014 industry revenue of approximately $5.3 billion, the same as revenues reported in 2011. • Based on ESCOs’ 3-year growth projections, ESCOs expect total annual industry revenues to be approximately $7.6 billion for 2017, which equates to an average annual growth rate of ~13% for the three years 2015-2017. • Public and institutional market sectors accounted for 85% of industry revenue in 2014, which is consistent with previous study findings. • Performance contracting generated 75% ($3.7 billion) of industry revenue in 2014, which is somewhat higher than the 69% share for performance contracting reported in 2011 and 2008. Design-build projects contributed the next largest share of 2014 revenue (16% or ~$800 million), followed distantly by consulting Services (5%), onsite generation power purchase agreements (3%) and other activities (2%). • The share of industry revenue contributed by large ESCOs (annual Energy Services revenue of $300M or greater) declined somewhat between 2011 and 2014. Accordingly, medium-sized ESCOs as a group (annual revenue between $100M and $299M) increased market share from 29% in 2011 to 33% in 2014. Small ESCOs (annual revenue l$100M) increased market share slightly, from 15% in 2011 to 16% in 2014. • Share of industry revenues by ESCO size varies in different regions across the U.S. For example, large ESCOs accounted for 60-80% of industry revenues in West North Central, Middle Atlantic and New England regions. However, small ESCOs garnered nearly as much of the total market revenue as large ESCOs in the East North Central region. • New customers accounted for the majority of performance-based revenue during the years 2012-2014, with some variation by market segment. • ESCOs incorporate at least one of six key types of non-Energy benefit in performance-based projects across all market segments. • More than half of the ESCOs serving each market segment reported leveraging local, state or federal tax benefits in projects. • ESCOs reported use of various financing approaches for each market segment. Most federal projects were financed using term loans. Financed projects for state and local governments, universities, colleges and K-12 schools, and healthcare facilities made extensive use of leases and term loans. Bonds were used almost exclusively for state/local and K-12 schools projects. The authors discuss of a number of factors that may have contributed to the industry growth slowdown between 2011 and 2014.
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Estimating customer electricity and fuel savings from projects installed by the US ESCO industry
Energy Efficiency, 2015Co-Authors: Juan Pablo Carvallo, Peter H Larsen, Charles GoldmanAbstract:The US Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering substantial Energy and dollar savings in the public and institutional facilities sector, typically through the use of Energy savings performance contracts (ESPC). The ESCO industry has the opportunity to play an important role in achieving demand-side Energy efficiency under the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Clean Power Plan. The EPA considered demand-side Energy efficiency as a compliance strategy for proposed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards under section 111 (d) of the Clean Air Act. To date, there has been little or no research in the public domain to estimate electricity or fuel savings for the entire US ESCO industry. Estimating these savings levels is a foundational step in order to determine total avoided GHG emissions from demand-side Energy efficiency measures installed by US ESCOs. We find that on average, 66 % of total Energy savings are in the form of electricity, but that in more comprehensive projects, almost 50 % of savings are produced from fuel resources. Overall, we estimate that active US ESCO industry projects generated about 34 TWh of electricity savings in 2012. About 15 TWh of these electricity savings were for municipal, local, and state government facilities; universities/colleges; K-12 schools; and healthcare (MUSH) facilities customers who did not rely on utility customer-funded Energy efficiency programs. We extend the electricity analysis to estimate total Energy savings and find that the US ESCO industry saved ∼224 million MMBtu in 2012 or ∼1 % of the total US commercial building Energy consumption.
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a method to estimate the size and remaining market potential of the u s esco Energy Service Company industry
Energy, 2014Co-Authors: Elizabeth Stuart, Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Donald GilliganAbstract:This study presents a method to estimate the market investment potential for ESPC (Energy-saving performance contracts) and annual blended Energy savings remaining in buildings typically addressed by U.S. ESCOs (Energy Service companies). We define ESCOs as companies for whom performance-based contracting is a core business activity. The market potential analysis incorporates market penetration estimates provided by industry experts in late 2012, data on U.S. building stock typically addressed by ESCOs, and typical project investment costs from a database of 4000 þ projects. ESCO industry revenue growth significantly outpaced U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth during 2009e2011. We estimate that the remaining investment potential in facilities typically addressed by the ESCO industry ranges from ~$71 to $133 billion. Our analysis includes ESCO industry size and growth projections drawing on information from interviews with ESCO executives conducted in late 2012. The U.S. ESCO industry could grow in size from $6 billion in 2013 to ~$7.5 billion by 2014, but this growth is contingent on enabling policies. The U.S. ESCO industry is similar in size to the ESCO industries in Germany, France, and China. Our estimation approach could be adapted for other countries with the caveat that ESCO industry definitions and revenue reporting practices vary across countries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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evolution of the u s Energy Service Company industry market size and project performance from 1990 2008
Energy Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Andrew SatchwellAbstract:LBNL-XXXX E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Evolution of the U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008 Peter H. Larsen, Charles A. Goldman and Andrew Satchwell Environmental Energy Technologies Division May 2012 Pre-print of article submitted for publication to Energy Policy The work described in this report was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program and the Permitting, Siting and Analysis Division of the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
William F Gale - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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demand pull government policies to support product Service system activity the case of Energy Service companies escos in the uk
Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015Co-Authors: Matthew. Hannon, Timothy J Foxon, William F GaleAbstract:Product-Service Systems (PSSs) constitute a family of Service-based business models designed to satisfy our societal needs in an economically and environmentally sustainable manner. To date however PSS application has remained niche due to a variety of critical barriers. This paper explores how ‘demand pull’ national government policies could support PSS activity by addressing these barriers and cultivating market demand. Lessons are drawn from a case study of how regulatory, economic incentive, informative and procurement policies have supported Energy Service Company (ESCo) activity in the UK; a sub-set of the PSS family focused on Energy Service provision. Subsequently five policy recommendations are presented to support PSS activity: (1) balancing economic incentives and regulatory disincentives; (2) promoting indirect policy support; (3) redesigning existing market structures; (4) promoting locally-led PSS activity; and (5) creating stable policy frameworks. The paper warns however that national government policy cannot easily address all PSS barriers, such as customer preferences, international developments, technological progress and inherent business model weaknesses, pointing to the need for other complementary solutions. Furthermore, other governance actors beside national government could also implement PSS supporting policies.
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the co evolutionary relationship between Energy Service companies and the uk Energy system implications for a low carbon transition
Energy Policy, 2013Co-Authors: Matthew. Hannon, Timothy J Foxon, William F GaleAbstract:The Energy Service Company (ESCo) business model is designed to reward businesses by satisfying consumers’ Energy needs at less cost and with fewer carbon emissions via Energy demand management and/or sustainable supply measures. In contrast, the revenue of the incumbent Energy Utility Company (EUCo) model is coupled with the sale of units of Energy, which are predominantly sourced from fossil fuels. The latter is currently dominant in the UK. This paper addresses two questions. First, why has the ESCo model traditionally been confined to niche applications? Second, what role is the ESCo model likely to play in the transition to a low-carbon UK Energy system? To answer these, the paper examines the core characteristics of the ESCo model, relative to the EUCo model. The paper then examines how ESCos have co-evolved with the various dimensions of the Energy system (i.e. ecosystems, institutions, user practices, technologies and business models) to provide insight into how ESCos might help to shape the future UK Energy system. We suggest that institutional and technological changes within the UK Energy system could result in a more favourable selection environment for ESCos, consequently enabling the ESCo model to proliferate at the expense of the EUCo model.
Andrew Satchwell - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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evolution of the u s Energy Service Company industry market size and project performance from 1990 2008
Energy Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Andrew SatchwellAbstract:LBNL-XXXX E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Evolution of the U.S. Energy Service Company Industry: Market Size and Project Performance from 1990-2008 Peter H. Larsen, Charles A. Goldman and Andrew Satchwell Environmental Energy Technologies Division May 2012 Pre-print of article submitted for publication to Energy Policy The work described in this report was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program and the Permitting, Siting and Analysis Division of the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
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evolution of the u s Energy Service Company industry market size and project performance from 1990 2008
Energy Policy, 2012Co-Authors: Peter H Larsen, Charles Goldman, Andrew SatchwellAbstract:The U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) industry is an example of a private sector business model where Energy savings are delivered to customers primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. This study was conceived as a snapshot of the ESCO industry prior to the economic slowdown and the introduction of federal stimulus funding mandated by enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). This study utilizes two parallel analytic approaches to characterize ESCO industry and market trends in the U.S.: (1) a “top-down” approach involving a survey of individual ESCOs to estimate aggregate industry activity and (2) a “bottom-up” analysis of a database of ∼3250 projects (representing over $8B in project investment) that reports market trends including installed EE retrofit strategies, project installation costs and savings, project payback times, and benefit-cost ratios over time. Despite the onset of a severe economic recession, the U.S. ESCO industry managed to grow at about 7% per year between 2006 and 2008. ESCO industry revenues were about $4.1 billion in 2008 and ESCOs anticipate accelerated growth through 2011 (25% per year). We found that 2484 ESCO projects in our database generated ∼$4.0 billion ($2009) in net, direct economic benefits to their customers. We estimate that the ESCO project database includes about 20% of all U.S. ESCO market activity from 1990–2008. Assuming the net benefits per project are comparable for ESCO projects that are not included in the LBNL database, this would suggest that the ESCO industry has generated ∼$23 billion in net direct economic benefits for customers at projects installed between 1990 and 2008. There is empirical evidence confirming that the industry is evolving by installing more comprehensive and complex measures—including onsite generation and measures to address deferred maintenance—but this evolution has significant implications for customer project economics, especially at K-12 schools. We found that the median simple payback time has increased from 1.9 to 3.2 years in private sector projects since the early-to-mid 1990s and from 5.2 to 10.5 years in public sector projects for the same time period.