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Michele Ruta - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the Global Trade slowdown cyclical or structural
    IMF Working Papers, 2015
    Co-Authors: Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta
    Abstract:

    This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world Trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the Global Trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between Trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term Trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the Global financial crisis. These results suggest that Trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the Trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of Trade and GDP.

  • the Global Trade slowdown cyclical or structural
    The World Bank Economic Review, 2015
    Co-Authors: Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta
    Abstract:

    This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world Trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the Global Trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between Trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term Trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the Global financial crisis. These results suggest that Trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of gross domestic product, but also because of a structural change in the Trade-gross domestic product relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of Trade and gross domestic product.

Aliza Marcus - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Robert Teh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The WTO Global Trade Model: Technical documentation
    2019
    Co-Authors: Angel Aguiar, Erwin Corong, Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe, Eddy Bekkers, Robert Koopman, Robert Teh
    Abstract:

    This document provides a technical description of the WTO Global Trade Model developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The model can be used to generate Global Trade projections and to assess the medium and long run effects of a wide range of Global and national Trade policies. The WTO Global Trade Model is a recursive dynamic extension of the static GTAP model (Corong et al., 2017), and implements a parsimonious approach to incorporate monopolistic competition - i.e., Eithier-Krugman or Melitz-type firm heterogeneity - in the standard GTAP model following Bekkers and Francois (2018).

  • Potential economic effects of a Global Trade conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO Global Trade model
    2019
    Co-Authors: Eddy Bekkers, Robert Teh
    Abstract:

    The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a Global Trade conflict. The Trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs. The study provides three main insights. First, the projected macroeconomic effects in the medium run are considerable. A Global Trade conflict started in 2019 would lead to a reduction in Global GDP in 2022 of about 1.96% and a reduction in Global Trade of about 17% compared to the baseline. For context Global GDP fell about 2.1% and Global Trade 12.4% in the Global financial crisis of 2009. Second, behind the single-digit aggregate production effects there are much larger, double-digit sectoral production effects in many countries, leading to a painful adjustment process. In general, a Global Trade conflict leads to a reallocation of resources away from the most efficient allocation based on comparative advantage. Third, the large swings in sectoral production lead to substantial labour displacement. On average 1.15% and 1.74% of high-skilled and low-skilled workers respectively would leave their initial sector of employment.

Yan Hao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • co2 metabolic flow analysis in Global Trade based on ecological network analysis
    Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018
    Co-Authors: Yan Zhang, Gengyuan Liu, Yan Hao
    Abstract:

    Abstract CO 2 emission induced by international Trade brings a plenty of pressure on Global warming. Hence, it is important to understand multi-regional CO 2 flows that result from Global Trade and flow variation of different paths. After transforming capital flows into CO 2 carbon flows, we built an ecological network model of the Global Trade system's carbon metabolism. Through ecological network analysis, we identified the direct and indirect effects of temporal CO 2 flows in the network. We found that the total integral flow through the network experienced a remarkable increase during the study period. In addition, total import and export flows of four countries, including US, China, Germany and Russia, turned out to be rather big. Direct flow share was usually beyond 50% between two geographical adjacent countries, while that share was below 50% when two countries are far away. This research reveals the importance role of indirect flows and can therefore provide an empirical basis for adjusting and optimizing Global Trade network.

Thomas W. Hertel - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Global Trade ANALYSIS IN THE YEAR 2010: A GLIMPSE OF THE FUTURE
    2010
    Co-Authors: Thomas W. Hertel
    Abstract:

    This paper discusses future directions in Global Trade analysis from the perspective of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) network. The first section offers a projection of where the GTAP network might be in the year 2010. This is followed by an analysis of the basic drivers of change in Global Trade analysis. These include: network externalities and the push for greater openness in both modeling and database work. The second half of the paper revisits John Whalley's "Hidden Challenges" for applied general equilibrium analysis, discussing how well we have fared with respect to these challenges, first posed in 1986. The paper closes with some additional challenges for Global Trade analysis in the coming decade.

  • Future Directions in Global Trade Analysis
    1999
    Co-Authors: Thomas W. Hertel
    Abstract:

    August 1999 This paper discusses future directions in Global Trade analysis from the perspective of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) network. The first section offers a projection of where the GTAP Network might be in the year 2010. This is followed by an analysis of the basic drivers of change in Global Trade analysis. These include: network externalities and the push for greater openness in both modeling and database work. The second half of the paper revisits John Whalley's "Hidden Challenges" for applied general equilibrium analysis, discussing how well we have fared with respect to these challenges, first posed in 1986. The paper closes with some additional challenges for Global Trade analysis in the coming decade.

  • Global Trade analysis modeling and applications
    1999
    Co-Authors: Thomas W. Hertel
    Abstract:

    This book, drawn from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), aims to help readers conduct quantitative analysis of international Trade issues in an economy-wide framework. In addition to providing a succinct introduction to the GTAP modeling framework and data base, this book contains seven of the most refined GTAP applications undertaken to date, covering topics ranging from Trade policy, to the Global implications of environmental policies, factor accumulation and technological change.

  • Global Trade analysis
    1999
    Co-Authors: Thomas W. Hertel
    Abstract:

    This book, drawn from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), aims to help readers conduct quantitative analysis of international Trade issues in an economy-wide framework. In addition to providing a succinct introduction to the GTAP modelling framework and data base, this book contains seven of the most refined GTAP applications undertaken to date, covering topics ranging from Trade policy to the Global implications of environmental policies, factor accumulation and technological change. The authors of the applications are representative of the broader group of GTAP users. Some are academics, while others are professional economists in national and international agencies. All of their studies can be independently replicated by the reader through accessing software and files via the Internet. Readers can also explore the sensitivity of results to varying assumptions and use the applications to launch independent research projects.

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