The Experts below are selected from a list of 321 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform

Chris Wrigley - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Saeed Heravi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the International Economy: balance of payments
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1997
    Co-Authors: D.j. Smyth, Saeed Heravi
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the International Economy made by the OECD. Our large data set, comprising some 5500 pairs of forecasts and outcomes, includes one-, two-, and three-step ahead semi-annual forecasts of eight components of the balance of payments for the G7 economies over a 20-year period. There is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts. Although they are generally superior to naive and time-series predictions, there are some marked exceptions particularly as the forecast horizon lengthens. Forecasting error is overwhelmingly non-systematic. However, our study reveals numerous instances of forecasts which could be improved by a simple linear correction, or by incorporating information contained in known, recent forecast errors. The OECD's forecasts of services and private transfers, and official transfers are cause for particular concern: the accuracy of these forecasts is low, often below that of corresponding time-series forecasts, and rationality tests indicate that they are most prone to inefficiency and inconsistency.

  • The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the International Economy : Demand, output and prices
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1990
    Co-Authors: D.j. Smyth, Saeed Heravi
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper examines the accuracy of forecasts of the International Economy made by the OECD. Our large data set, comprising over 7,000 pairs of forecasts and outcomes, includes one-, two-, and three-step ahead semi-annual forecasts of the main components of demand, output and prices for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A. over the twenty-year period 1968–1987. Various measures of accuracy are computed; also a comparison is made with competing naive and time-series predictions. The analysis includes a full range of diagnostic checks on forecast performance, including rationality tests for unbiasedness, efficiency and consistency. Although there is considerable variation in the accuracy of these forecasts, they are generally superior to the naive and time-series predictions. Error is predominantly non-systematic. However, our analysis exposes exceptions, particularly forecasts of government consumption, and in some of the forecasts of fixed and inventory investment, the foreign balance and inflation. Accuracy in these cases could be improved by a simple linear correction, or by incorporating information contained in recent, known forecast errors. At least half the OECD forecasts fail one or more of the rationality tests.

Wang Yun-feng - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Frans Van Winden - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Input Versus Output Taxation In An Experimental International Economy
    Levine's Bibliography, 2020
    Co-Authors: Arno Riedl, Frans Van Winden
    Abstract:

    This paper is concerned with a policy oriented macroeconomic experiment involving an 'International' Economy with a relatively small 'home' country and a large 'foreign' country. It compares the economic performance of two alternative tax systems as a means to finance unemployment benefits: a sales-tax-cum-labor-subsidy system versus a wage tax system. The two systems are applied to the home country, while the wage tax system always obtains in the foreign country. In stark contrast with expectations of experts the sales tax system clearly outperforms the wage tax system, using standard economic indicators. It is argued that producers' reluctance to incur costs up-front while being uncertain about product prices can explain this outcome. Several pieces of evidence are provided to support this claim. The results strongly suggest that behavioral aspects have to be taken into account also in applied macroeconomic models.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

  • Input versus output taxation in an experimental International Economy
    European Economic Review, 2004
    Co-Authors: Arno Riedl, Frans Van Winden
    Abstract:

    This paper presents the results of a policy oriented macroeconomic experiment involving an ‘InternationalEconomy with a relatively small ‘home’ country and a large ‘foreign’ country. It compares the economic performance of two alternative tax systems: a wage tax system and a sales-tax-cum-labor-subsidy system. The two systems are applied to the small country, while the wage tax system always obtains in the large country. The main result is that the sales tax system outperforms the wage tax system, using standard economic indicators. Moreover, it turns out that under the sales tax system economic activities appear to be moving toward the ‘better’ of two theoretical equilibria. It is argued that producers’ reluctance to incur costs up-front while being uncertain about product prices can explain these results. Several pieces of evidence are provided to support this claim. The results strongly suggest that behavioral aspects should be taken into account also in applied macroeconomic models.

Deng Zi-qiang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE WESTERN CHINA International Economy AND TRADE FAIR
    Journal of Southwest Petroleum University, 2020
    Co-Authors: Deng Zi-qiang
    Abstract:

    Western China International Economy and Trade Fair is a great event which involves various economic activities as trade fair,investment and cooperation negotiation,business seminars.This important opportunity has greatly improved economic development in western China in many ways.This paper mainly discusses the six positive effects of "Western China Fair":multiplier effect,radiation effect,siphon effect,brand effect,fusion effect.The authors point out that those effects are becoming the engine and accelerator of economic development and inter-regional cooperation in West China.