The Experts below are selected from a list of 327 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
James J. Heckman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Micro Data, Heterogeneity and the Evaluation of Public Policy Part 1
The American Economist, 2004Co-Authors: James J. HeckmanAbstract:This paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge. Four main themes are developed. (1) Microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the Second World War. (2) Microeconometrics improved on aggregate time series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behaviour. (3) An important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behaviour. This heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice. (4) Microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy.
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Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy
2001Co-Authors: James J. HeckmanAbstract:This paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge. Four main themes are developed. (1) Microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the Second World War. (2) Microeconometrics improved on aggregate time-series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior. (3) An important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior. This heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice. (4) Microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy.
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Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture
Journal of Political Economy, 2001Co-Authors: James J. HeckmanAbstract:This paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge. Four main themes are developed. (1) Microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the Second World War. (2) Microeconometrics improved on aggregate time‐series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior. (3) An important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior. This heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice. (4) Microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy.
Abbas Valadkhani - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2005Co-Authors: Abbas ValadkhaniAbstract:This paper selectively reviews various approaches of macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building particularly in the context of Asian countries. Addressing several issues discussed in this paper can improve the use of macroeconometric models (MEM) in forecasting and policy analysis in the foreseeable future. This survey shows that most MEMs in developing countries are either becoming smaller in size or not being subject to a thorough diagnostic investigation. In the specification of models one should consider the interplay among macroeconomic policies of different countries via international trade and global financial markets. It is argued that the Project Link and the Fair multicountry model are two initiatives in the right direction. It also appears that with advancement of econometric "know-how", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.
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History of Macroeconometric Modelling: Lessons from Past Experience
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2004Co-Authors: Abbas ValadkhaniAbstract:Abstract This paper reviews the general literature on macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building. It appears that from the late 1940s to the 1960s, this field has contributed to the expanding knowledge of both economists and econometricians. However, from the early 1970s, several issues invalidated the use of macroeconometric models (MEMs). These issues are analysed in this paper. It is, inter alia, argued that with advancement of econometric “know-how,” the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.
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History Of Macroeconometric Modelling: Lessons From Past Experience: Discussion Paper No. 131
2003Co-Authors: Abbas ValadkhaniAbstract:This paper reviews briefly the general literature on macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building. It appears that from the late 1940s to the 1960s this field has contributed to the expanding knowledge of both economists and econometricians. However, from the early 1970s, several issues invalidated macroeconometric models. These issues are: theoretical contrasts with rational expectations theory, structural instability, the arbitrary division of endo-exogenous variables of the model, the existence of the problem of unit roots (spurious regressions) and insufficient amount of econometric "know-how". It is argued that with advancement of econometric "know-how", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.
Antonella Rancan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The ‘Place of the Phillips Curve’ in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the Fed Board’s Model (1966–1980s)
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020Co-Authors: Antonella RancanAbstract:The article reconstructs how the Phillips curve was embedded into the Fed-MIT-Penn macroeconometric model of the late 1960s. My aim is to integrate James Forder’s (2014) narrative about the Phillips curve myth by looking at the macroeconometric model that should have been devoted to guide the Fed Board monetary policy. It is argued that the academic debate on the vertical Phillips curve did not affect the building of the wage and price block, which remained almost unchanged throughout the 1970s and 1980s.
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The ‘Place of the Phillips Curve’ in Macroeconometric Models: The Case of the Fed’s Macroeconometric Model (1966–1980s)
2019Co-Authors: Antonella RancanAbstract:The paper investigates how the Fed-MIT-Penn model incorporated the Phillips curve within its larger system of equations, after Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address. Forder (2014) reconstructs the history of the Phillips curve’s parabola arguing that the standard narrative is a myth; a myth he demolished step by step by looking at an extensive academic and non-academic literature. However, he pays little attention to the Macroeconometrics literature both because Macroeconometrics models were “works in progress”, therefore inferring “what [was] generally believed” might be difficult (2014: 20-21); and because they were short run forecasting models and thus little affected by the debate on the vertical Phillips curve. My paper integrates Forder’s narrative investigating how macroeconometric models approached the Phillips curve issue since the late 1960s to the 1980s. I concentrate on the Federal Reserve Board’s first macroeconometric model built by economists from the Fed Division of Research in Statistics under Frank de Leeuw supervision, in collaboration with academic economists under the directorship of Franco Modigliani and Albert Ando. Because the result of close interactions between academic economists and practitioners the model should have been open to academic debates, trying to combine theoretical achievements with policy analysis and forecasting. The evolution of this model over the 1970s, and particularly of the wage and price block, appears emblematic of the relationships between the development of macroeconomic theory and its application.
Kenneth F. Wallis - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Time series analysis and macroeconometric modelling
1995Co-Authors: Kenneth F. WallisAbstract:This major volume of essays by Kenneth F. Wallis features 28 articles published over a quarter of a century on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large-scale macroeconometric modelling, and the interface between them. The first part deals with time-series econometrics and includes significant early contributions to the development of the LSE tradition in time-series econometrics, which is the dominant British tradition and has considerable influence worldwide. Later sections discuss theoretical and practical issues in modelling seasonality and forecasting with applications in both large-scale and small-scale models. The final section summarizes the research programme of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau, a unique comparison project among economy-wide macroeconometric models.
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On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models
Economic Record, 1993Co-Authors: Kenneth F. WallisAbstract:Macroeconometric models provide a formal and quantified framework that is an irreplaceable adjunct to the processes of policy thought. This article analyzes some recent developments in model structure and model use, and the interactions between them. Two major areas in which recent research has contributed to the ongoing process of model development are considered, namely the ‘supply-side’ approach to wages and unemployment, and the modelling of the exchange rate. An improved vehicle for macroeconomic policy analysis is an objective of such developments, and some issues surrounding the use of macroeconometric models in policy analysis are discussed
Pedro Garcia Duarte - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The history of macroeconometric modeling: An introduction
History of Political Economy, 2019Co-Authors: Marcel Boumans, Pedro Garcia DuarteAbstract:In the past two decades some of the history of economics turned from histories of economic ideas or economic thought, focusing on the study of “theories” and “schools of thought”, to histories of, for example, epistemic mediators such as “models”, “experiments”, “measurements”, and “observations.” The articles in this special issue show that a change of perspective in historical analysis toward the practice of macroeconometric modeling will enrich the history of macroeconomics. The history of macroeconomics is not only a history of ideas, but includes also histories of tools, especially macroeconometric models. These models are never built by one person, but require close cooperation of multiple teams, each from a specific discipline, while their workplaces are not necessarily located at universities. Unlike theories, a tool is designed and made for a specific purpose and have clients. This shift of focus from macroeconomic theories to macroeconometric models will perhaps give as a better understanding of the unfolding of modern economics.
