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Hans-michael Trautwein - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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SOME INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: NEISSER, HABERLER, AND MODERN Open Economy Macroeconomics
Journal of The History of Economic Thought, 2016Co-Authors: Hans-michael TrautweinAbstract:Despite the transnational character of the Great Depression, there are few works in the interwar literature that deal with the propagation of business cycles across national borders and systemic risks of depression in the world Economy. Two notable exceptions are Hans Neisser’s Some International Aspects of the Business Cycle (1936) and chapter 12 in Gottfried Haberler’s Prosperity and Depression ([1937] 1964), which carries the heading “International Aspects of Business Cycles.†Both works differ substantially from each other and from the modern way of thinking about international business cycles in Open Economy Macroeconomics. Haberler’s and Neisser’s approaches help to identify relevant issues that have been lost from sight in modern Open Economy Macroeconomics.
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Some International Aspects of Business Cycles: Neisser, Haberler and Modern Open Economy Macroeconomics
2015Co-Authors: Hans-michael TrautweinAbstract:Despite the transnational character of the Great Depression of the years 1929-33, there are few works in the inter-war literature that deal in depth with the propagation of business cycles across national borders and systemic risks of depression in the world Economy. Two notable exceptions are Hans Neisser’s monograph on Some International Aspects of the Business Cycle (1936) and chapter 12 in Gottfried Haberler’s Prosperity and Depression (1937), which carries the heading “International Aspects of Business Cycles”. Both works differ substantially from each other and from the modern way of thinking about international business cycles in Open Economy Macroeconomics. This paper argues that Neisser’s and Haberler’s approaches provide more straightforward routes to capturing some of the transnational aspects of the recent Great Recession (of 2008/09) than the modern standard approach. At the first stage, the two older approaches are presented and compared with each other. At the second stage, they are contrasted with the current state of Open-Economy Macroeconomics, as represented by Uribe & Schmitt-Grohe (2014), a textbook in the making that puts international macro in a business cycle framework. Since Haberler’s account accentuates the role of transport costs, imperfections of capital markets and monetary policies, it can be used as a catalogue of criteria for checking what modern attempts to connect international trade, international finance and economic growth have got (back) in sight. More importantly, both Haberler’s and Neisser’s approach also serve to identify what has been lost out of sight.
David Vines - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Comments on Paul Davidson’s “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?â€
2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work,3 where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?†Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
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comments on paul davidsonâ s â œfull employment Open Economy Macroeconomics and keynesâ general theory does the swan diagram suffice â
2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work,3 where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?†Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
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Comments on Paul Davidson's 'Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?'
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work, where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?” Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
Peter Temin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Comments on Paul Davidson’s “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?â€
2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work,3 where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?†Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
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comments on paul davidsonâ s â œfull employment Open Economy Macroeconomics and keynesâ general theory does the swan diagram suffice â
2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work,3 where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?†Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
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Comments on Paul Davidson's 'Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?'
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015Co-Authors: Peter Temin, David VinesAbstract:This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work, where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance. In his article “Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?” Davidson rejects our use of the Swan diagram and argues that it distorts Keynes’ own views. We show here why Davidson’s critique is incorrect, inconsistent and ahistorical.
Maurice Obstfeld - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exchange rates and adjustment : perspectives from the new Open Economy Macroeconomics
2002Co-Authors: Maurice ObstfeldAbstract:The new Open-Economy Macroeconomics has allowed economists to tackle classical problems with new tools, while also generating new ideas and questions. In their attempts to make the new models capture empirical regularities, researchers have entertained a variety of assumptions about the international pricing of goods, notably, models of pricing to market and destination-currency pricing of exports. Some of the resulting models imply that exchange rate changes lack international expenditure-switching effects, and they thus appear to call for a radical rethinking of the role of exchange rates in international adjustment. This paper argues that the recent resurgence of exchange rate pessimism stems from oversimplified modeling strategies rather than from evidence. Like earlier episodes starting with the extreme “elasticity pessimism” of the early postwar era, it is based on a misinterpretation of the empirical record.
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Open-Economy Macroeconomics, Developments in Theory and Policy
1999Co-Authors: Maurice ObstfeldAbstract:This paper surveys recent research in Open-Economy Macroeconomics, using questions raised by European economic and monetary unification to guide the topics discussed. A striking empirical regularity is the tendency for changes in the nominal exchange rate regime systematically to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike. This regularity (which disappears in high-inflation conditions) can be explained by sticky-price theories or by models of asset-market liquidity effects. But plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence (in output and real exchange rates, in particular) to match the data. So the macroeconomic costs of giving up the exchange-rate realignment option, emphasized in Mundell's optimum currency area concept, seem empirically relevant. The paper discusses other possible costs of currency unification, associated with a reduced number of asset markets. On the benefit side, our theories of the efficiencies due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory, despite recent advances. A key motivation for the choice of a common currency over a fixed exchange rate between national currencies is the fear of speculative attack. The paper concludes by showing how self-fulfilling currency crises can occur, and describes recent progress in narrowing the range of multiple equilibria in adjustable-peg regimes.
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Open Economy Macroeconomics developments in theory and policy
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1998Co-Authors: Maurice ObstfeldAbstract:This paper views developments in Open-Economy Macroeconomics through the lens of the debate over European monetary unification. The empirical tendency for nominal exchange rate regimes to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike can be rationalized by sticky-price theories or models of asset-market liquidity effects. But plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence to match the data. Thus, the macroeconomic stabilization costs of forgoing the exchange-rate realignment option seem pertinent. It is argued that the theories of efficiencies due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory, despite recent advances. The paper concludes by reviewing theories of currency crisis. Copyright 1998 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
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Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1998Co-Authors: Maurice ObstfeldAbstract:This paper views developments in Open-Economy Macroeconomics through the lens of the debate over European monetary unification. The empirical tendency for nominal exchange rate regimes to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike can be rationalized by sticky-price theories or models of asset-market liquidity effects. But plausible liquidity models have difficulty generating enough persistence to match the data. Thus, the macroeconomic stabilization costs of forgoing the exchange-rate realignment option seem pertinent. It is argued that our theories of efficiencies due to a common currency remain unsatisfactory, despite recent advances. The paper concludes by reviewing theories of currency crisis
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Ekonomi Internasional : Teori dan Kebijakan
1992Co-Authors: Haris Munandar, Maurice Obstfeld, Paul Krugman, Faisal H. BasriAbstract:Krugman and Obstfeld provide a unified model of Open-Economy Macroeconomics based upon an asset-market approach to exchange rate determination with a central role for expectations.
E. V. K. Fitzgerald - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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International Markets and Open Economy Macroeconomics
Global Markets and the Developing Economy, 2003Co-Authors: E. V. K. FitzgeraldAbstract:The extension of free trade throughout the world and greater integration of capital markets after the late 1980s was thought to herald the emergence of a truly ‘global Economy’ anticipated by Keynes and his colleagues at Bretton Woods fifty years ago. Popular opinion held that this dynamic world Economy would principally benefit poor countries; by embracing the principles of liberal capitalism and establishing efficient production structures, developing countries would reap the economic benefits of rapid export growth and massive foreign investment.
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International Markets and Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Keynesian view
The Relevance of Keynesian Economic Policies Today, 1997Co-Authors: E. V. K. FitzgeraldAbstract:This paper attempts to sketch a Keynesian response to the gap between the reality of international capital markets and the ‘standard paradigm’ of economic theory that underpins the policy model offered to poor countries in relation to their participation in the world Economy and their national macroeconomic management. Recent work on imperfect markets, much of it from self-styled ‘New Keynesian’ point of view, implies a substantial modification of this standard paradigm to allow for non-price clearing but this does not appear to to have been integrated with new trade theories, while the implications of systemic volatility and credit rationing behaviour have not been theorized. The paper suggests that a return to Keynes's original approach to investor uncertainty and global demand might not only help to integrate international macroeconomic theory in a plausible manner but also contribute to the foumulation of more desirable policy positions.
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international capital markets and Open Economy Macroeconomics
Oxford Development Studies, 1996Co-Authors: E. V. K. FitzgeraldAbstract:Abstract The standard Open‐Economy model on which the Bretton Woods Macroeconomics is based takes into account neither the systemically fragmented nature of international capital markets nor the institutional relationship between savings and investment in semi‐industrial economies. This paper suggests that a more realistic approach to these structural features, possibly along the lines suggested by recent “new‐Keynesian” theories of market failure, would yield a model of macroeconomic behaviour which emphasizes investor uncertainty and vulnerability to external shock. The policy implications have interesting parallels with Keynes's own views on stabilization.
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International capital markets and Open‐Economy Macroeconomics
Oxford Development Studies, 1996Co-Authors: E. V. K. FitzgeraldAbstract:Abstract The standard Open‐Economy model on which the Bretton Woods Macroeconomics is based takes into account neither the systemically fragmented nature of international capital markets nor the institutional relationship between savings and investment in semi‐industrial economies. This paper suggests that a more realistic approach to these structural features, possibly along the lines suggested by recent “new‐Keynesian” theories of market failure, would yield a model of macroeconomic behaviour which emphasizes investor uncertainty and vulnerability to external shock. The policy implications have interesting parallels with Keynes's own views on stabilization.
