The Experts below are selected from a list of 6735 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Robert J Nicholls - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
projections of global scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic Coastal Flooding over the 21st century
Scientific Reports, 2020Co-Authors: Ebru Kirezci, Robert J Nicholls, Ian R Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sanne Muis, Daniel Lincke, Jochen HinkelAbstract:Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic Coastal Flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic Flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no Coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of Flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global Coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
-
an improved database of Coastal Flooding in the united kingdom from 1915 to 2016
Scientific Data, 2017Co-Authors: Ivan D Haigh, Robert J Nicholls, Matthew P Wadey, Shari L Gallop, Ozgun Ozsoy, Thomas Wahl, Jennifer M BrownAbstract:Coastal Flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The ‘SurgeWatch’ v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical Coastal flood events around the UK. The original database was inevitably biased due to the inconsistent spatial and temporal coverage of sea-level observations utilised. Therefore, we present an improved version integrating a variety of ‘soft’ data such as journal papers, newspapers, weather reports, and social media. SurgeWatch2.0 identifies 329 Coastal Flooding events from 1915 to 2016, a more than fivefold increase compared to the 59 events in v1.0. Moreover, each flood event is now ranked using a multi-level categorisation based on inundation, transport disruption, costs, and fatalities: from 1 (Nuisance) to 6 (Disaster). For the 53 most severe events ranked Category 3 and above, an accompanying event description based upon the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework was produced. Thus, SurgeWatch v2.0 provides the most comprehensive and coherent historical record of UK Coastal Flooding. It is designed to be a resource for research, planning, management and education.
-
Coastal Flooding in the maldives an assessment of historic events and their implications
Natural Hazards, 2017Co-Authors: Matthew P Wadey, Robert J Nicholls, Ivan D Haigh, Sally BrownAbstract:With many inhabited islands only at about 1 m above mean sea level, the Maldives is among the nations most threatened by Coastal Flooding and sea level rise. However, the understanding of recent Coastal flood events in the Maldives is limited and is important to understanding future flood threats. This paper assesses (1) the sea level and wave climate of the Maldives, (2) the sea level and wave conditions during recent Coastal flood events, and (3) the implications for flood management and future research. The analysis uses observed still water levels (1987–2015) and hindcast wave conditions (1979–2015). Two significant flood events on 10–13 April 1987 and 15–17 May 2007 are examined in detail. This shows that Coastal Flooding in the Maldives occurs due to multiple interacting sources. These include long-period (up to 20 s) energetic waves generated in the Southern Ocean combined with spring tides. Wave run-up (mainly wave set-up) appears an essential mechanism for a flood, but is currently poorly quantified. However, as sea levels continue to rise the conditions that produce a flood will occur more frequently, suggesting that Flooding will become common in the Maldives. This analysis is a starting point for future research and highlights the need to continue research on flood sources, pathways and receptors, and plan adaptation measures. Priorities include monitoring of waves, sea levels and flood events, and a better understanding of set-up (and other shallow water processes over reefs).
-
enhancing resilience to Coastal Flooding from severe storms in the usa international lessons
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2016Co-Authors: Darren Lumbroso, Robert J Nicholls, Natalie Suckall, Kathleen D WhiteAbstract:Abstract. Recent events in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in the Coastal population to Coastal Flooding, especially amongst disadvantaged and isolated communities. Some low-income countries, such as Cuba and Bangladesh, have made significant progress towards transformed societies that are more resilient to the impacts of cyclones and Coastal Flooding. To understand how this has come about, a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature related to resilience of communities to Coastal Flooding was undertaken in both countries. In both Cuba and Bangladesh the trust between national and local authorities, community leaders and civil society is high. As a consequence evacuation warnings are generally followed and communities are well prepared. As a result over the past 25 years in Bangladesh the number of deaths directly related to cyclones and Coastal Flooding has decreased, despite an increase of almost 50 % in the number of people exposed to these hazards. In Cuba, over the course of eight hurricanes between 2003 and 2011, the normalized number of deaths related to cyclones and Coastal floods was an order of magnitude less than in the USA. In low-income countries, warning systems and effective shelter/evacuation systems, combined with high levels of disaster risk-reduction education and social cohesion, coupled with trust between government authorities and vulnerable communities can help to increase resilience to Coastal hazards and tropical cyclones. In the USA, transferable lessons include improving communication and the awareness of the risk posed by Coastal surges, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the education system and building trusted community networks to help isolated and disadvantaged communities, and improve community resilience.
-
high frequency sea level variations and implications for Coastal Flooding a case study of the solent uk
Continental Shelf Research, 2016Co-Authors: Ozgun Ozsoy, Robert J Nicholls, Ivan D Haigh, Matthew P Wadey, N C WellsAbstract:This study examines the occurrence and characteristics of high-frequency (<6 h) sea level variations in the Solent, UK – a mesotidal estuarine strait located in the central English Channel. A 14-year time series (2000–2013) of sea level observations sampled at 15-min intervals from the Southampton tide gauge was analyzed. The 8 highest-energy events have a mean amplitude of approximately 0.6 m and a dominant period of around 4 h. These events correspond with periods of enhanced meteorological activity, namely a marked reduction in air pressure and onset of strong southwesterly-southeasterly winds. Sea level observations from tide gauges around the Solent and the wider English Channel region (23 in total) were used to assess the spatial characteristics of these events. Analysis of time series and phase information indicates the occurrence of standing waves oscillating across the English Channel between southern England and northern France. This study provides a unique example of standing waves generated by extra-tropical cyclones over a large basin (the English Channel) with implications for flood inundation. The event of 28th October 2013 – the highest-amplitude (1.16 m) event in the record – was associated with minor Coastal Flooding at Yarmouth, Isle of Wight. This flood occurred during a neap tide, when such events are widely thought to be impossible. Hence, our findings emphasize the relevance of high-frequency sea level variability for regional sea level forecasting and flood risk management.
G Iglesias - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
wave farm impacts on Coastal Flooding under sea level rise a case study in southern spain
Science of The Total Environment, 2019Co-Authors: Rafael J. Bergillos, Cristobal Rodriguezdelgado, G IglesiasAbstract:Abstract Coastal Flooding, already an acute problem in many parts of the world, will be exacerbated in the near future by the sea level rise induced by climate change. The influence of wave farms, i.e., arrays of wave energy converters, on Coastal processes, in particular sediment transport patterns, has been analysed in recent works; however, their influence on Coastal Flooding has not been addressed so far. The objective of this work is to investigate whether a wave farm can provide some protection from Flooding on the coast in its lee through a case study: a gravel-dominated beach in southern Spain (Playa Granada). We consider three sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios: the present situation (SLR0), an optimistic projection (SLR1) and a pessimistic projection (SLR2). Two state-of-the-art numerical models, SWAN and XBeach-G, are applied to determine the wave propagation patterns, total run-up and flooded dry beach area. The results indicate that the absorption of wave power by the wave farm affects wave propagation in its lee and, in particular, wave heights, with alongshore-averaged reductions in breaking wave heights about 10% (25%) under westerly (easterly) storms. These lower significant wave heights, in turn, result in alongshore-averaged run-up reductions for the three scenarios, which decreases with increasing SLR values from 5.9% (6.8%) to 1.5% (5.1%) for western (eastern) storms. Importantly, the dry beach area flooded under westerly (easterly) storms is also reduced by 5.7% (3.2%), 3.3% (4.9%) and 1.99% (4.5%) in scenarios SLR0, SLR1 and SLR2, respectively. These findings prove that a wave farm can actually reduce Coastal Flooding on its leeward coast.
Jochen Hinkel - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
projections of global scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic Coastal Flooding over the 21st century
Scientific Reports, 2020Co-Authors: Ebru Kirezci, Robert J Nicholls, Ian R Young, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sanne Muis, Daniel Lincke, Jochen HinkelAbstract:Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic Coastal Flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic Flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no Coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of Flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global Coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
-
economy wide effects of Coastal Flooding due to sea level rise a multi model simultaneous treatment of mitigation adaptation and residual impacts
Environmental Research Communications, 2020Co-Authors: Thomas Schinko, Jochen Hinkel, Laurent Drouet, Zoi Vrontisi, Junko Mochizuki, Valentina Bosetti, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Detlef P Van VuurenAbstract:This article presents a multi-model assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of Coastal Flooding due to sea level rise and the respective economy-wide implications of adaptation measures for two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration targets, namely the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)2.6 and RCP4.5, and subsequent temperature increases. We combine our analysis, focusing on the global level, as well as on individual G20 countries, with the corresponding stylized RCP mitigation efforts in order to understand the implications of interactions across mitigation, adaptation and sea level rise on a macroeconomic level. Our global results indicate that until the middle of this century, differences in macroeconomic impacts between the two climatic scenarios are small, but increase substantially towards the end of the century. Moreover, direct economic impacts can be partially absorbed by substitution effects in production processes and via international trade effects until 2050. By 2100 however, we find that this dynamic no longer holds and economy-wide effects become even larger than direct impacts. The disturbances of mitigation efforts to the overall economy may in some regions and for some scenarios lead to a counterintuitive result, namely to GDP losses that are higher in RCP26 than in RCP45, despite higher direct Coastal damages in the latter scenario. Within the G20, our results indicate that China, India and Canada will experience the highest macroeconomic impacts, in line with the respective direct climatic impacts, with the two first large economies undertaking the highest mitigation efforts in a cost-efficient global climate action. A sensitivity analysis of varying socioeconomic assumptions highlights the role of climate-resilient development as a crucial complement to mitigation and adaptation efforts.
-
mediterranean unesco world heritage at risk from Coastal Flooding and erosion due to sea level rise
Nature Communications, 2018Co-Authors: Lena Reimann, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Sally Brown, Jochen HinkelAbstract:UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from Coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from Coastal Flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both Coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying Coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from Coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
-
A typology of household-level adaptation to Coastal Flooding and its spatio-temporal patterns.
SpringerPlus, 2014Co-Authors: Jana Koerth, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Silvina Carretero, Horst Sterr, Jochen HinkelAbstract:The predicted sea-level rise and changes in storm surge regimes are expected to lead to an increasing risk of Flooding in Coastal regions. Accommodation can be an alternative to protection in many areas, with household-level adaptation potentially constituting an important element of such a strategy, as it can significantly reduce costs. To date, a systematic typology of household-level adaptation to Coastal Flooding does not exist. In order to bridge this gap, we conducted a series of quantitative surveys in different Coastal areas in Denmark, Germany and Argentina. We applied a cluster analysis in order to categorise the adaptive behaviour of Coastal households. Coastal households were found to cluster in four groups that we term: the comprehensives, the theoreticians, the minimalists and the structurals. With the exception of households focusing on the implementation of high-effort structural measures, our results show the affiliation to these groups to follow a specific temporal sequence. At the same time, large differences in category affiliation exist between the study areas. Risk communication tools can utilise our typology to selectively target specific types of households or to ensure that the information needs of all groups are addressed.
Douglas Hill - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
new york city s vulnerability to Coastal Flooding
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2008Co-Authors: Brian A Colle, Frank Buonaiuto, Malcolm J Bowman, Robert E Wilson, Roger D Flood, Robert Hunter, Alexander Mintz, Douglas HillAbstract:Abstract New York City, New York (NYC), is extremely vulnerable to Coastal Flooding; thus, verification and improvements in storm surge models are needed in order to protect both life and property. This paper highlights the Stony Brook Storm Surge (SBSS) modeling system. It utilizes surface winds and sea level pressures from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) or the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive the Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC). For this study, the MM5 is utilized at 12-km grid spacing and ADCIRC is run on an unstructured grid down to ∼10-m resolution in areas around Long Island and NYC. This paper describes the SBSS and its performance across the NYC region during the 11–12 December 1992 nor'easter and Tropical Storm Floyd on 16–17 September 1999. During the 1992 event, east-northeasterly surface winds of 15–25 m s−1 (30–50 kts) persisted for nearly 24...
Robert L Wilby - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and Coastal Flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in lower manhattan new york city
Journal of Hydrology, 2017Co-Authors: Dapeng Yu, Robert L WilbyAbstract:Abstract This paper describes a scenario-based approach for evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and Coastal Flooding on emergency responses. The analysis is applied to Lower Manhattan, New York City, considering FEMA’s 100- and 500-year flood scenarios and New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2)’s high-end SLR projections for the 2050s and 2080s, using the current situation as the baseline scenario. Service areas for different response timeframes (3-, 5- and 8-min) and various traffic conditions are simulated for three major emergency responders (i.e. New York Police Department (NYPD), Fire Department, New York (FDNY) and Emergency Medical Service (EMS)) under normal and flood scenarios. The modelling suggests that Coastal Flooding together with SLR could result in proportionate but non-linear impacts on emergency services at the city scale, and the performance of operational responses is largely determined by the positioning of emergency facilities and the functioning of traffic networks. Overall, emergency service accessibility to the city is primarily determined by traffic flow speed. However, the situation is expected to be further aggravated during Coastal Flooding, with is set to increase in frequency and magnitude due to SLR.