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Mikko Myrskyla - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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all time low period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020Co-Authors: Mikko Myrskyla, Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica NisenAbstract:The ongoing period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for Cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish Cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.
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Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic countries
2020Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Vitor Miranda, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:With their historically similar patterns of high and stable Cohort Fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic Fertility trends have strongly influenced Fertility theories. However, the period Fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high Fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether Nordic Cohort Fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline, and analyse to what extent it is attributable to tempo or to quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births, but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-thirties. Large-scale Fertility declines at ages above 30 have not been previously documented in these countries. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic Cohort Fertility will decline from two children for the 1970 Cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s Cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected Cohort Fertility, below 1.6, and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower Cohort Fertility decline. These findings suggest that the Nordic model of high and stable Fertility may need to be updated, and call into question the broader theories linking Fertility and gender equality. Keywords: Nordic Fertility regime, period Fertility, Cohort Fertility, Fertility timing, forecasting
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all time low period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Research Papers in Economics, 2019Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable Cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 Cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.
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forecast accuracy hardly improves with method complexity when completing Cohort Fertility
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018Co-Authors: Christina Bohkewald, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:Forecasts of completed Fertility predict how many children will be born on average by women over their entire reproductive lifetime. These forecasts are important in informing public policy and influencing additional research in the social sciences. However, nothing is known about how to choose a forecasting method from a large basket of variants. We identified 20 major methods, with 162 variants altogether. The approaches range from naive freezing of current age-specific Fertility rates to methods that use statistically sophisticated techniques or are grounded in demographic theory. We assess each method by evaluating the overall accuracy and if provided, uncertainty estimates using Fertility data of all available birth Cohorts and countries of the Human Fertility Database, which covers 1,096 birth Cohorts from 29 countries. Across multiple measures of forecast accuracy, we find only four methods that consistently outperform the naive freeze rates method, and only two methods produce uncertainty estimates that are not severely downward biased. Among the top four, there are two simple extrapolation methods and two Bayesian methods. The latter are demanding in terms of input data, statistical techniques, and computational power but do not consistently complete Cohort Fertility more accurately at all truncation ages than simple extrapolation. This broad picture is unchanged if we base the validation on 201 United Nations countries and six world regions, including Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, northern America, and Oceania.
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Bayesian forecasting of Cohort Fertility
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2014Co-Authors: Carl P. Schmertmann, Emilio Zagheni, Joshua R. Goldstein, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:There are signs that Fertility in rich countries may have stopped declining, but this depends critically on whether women currently in reproductive ages are postponing or reducing lifetime Fertility. Analysis of average completed family sizes requires forecasts of remaining Fertility for women born 1970–1995. We propose a Bayesian model for Fertility that incorporates a priori information about patterns over age and time. We use a new dataset, the Human Fertility Database (HFD), to construct improper priors that give high weight to historically plausible rate surfaces. In the age dimension, Cohort schedules should be well approximated by principal components of HFD schedules. In the time dimension, series should be smooth and approximately linear over short spans. We calibrate priors so that approximation residuals have theoretical distributions similar to historical HFD data. Our priors use quadratic penalties and imply a high-dimensional normal posterior distribution for each country's Fertility surface...
Jessica Nisen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe
European Journal of Population, 2020Co-Authors: Jessica Nisen, Lars Dommermuth, Trude Lappegard, Sebastian Klüsener, Johan Dahlberg, Aiva Jasilioniene, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Pekka Martikainen, Karel Neels, Bernhard RiedererAbstract:Educational differences in female Cohort Fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational Fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect Fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the Cohort Fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed Fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional Fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s Fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level Fertility analyses by education.
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Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe
European Journal of Population, 2020Co-Authors: Jessica Nisen, Lars Dommermuth, Trude Lappegard, Sebastian Klüsener, Johan Dahlberg, Aiva Jasilioniene, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Pekka Martikainen, Peng Li, Karel NeelsAbstract:Educational differences in female Cohort Fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational Fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect Fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the Cohort Fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed Fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional Fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s Fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level Fertility analyses by education.
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all time low period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020Co-Authors: Mikko Myrskyla, Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica NisenAbstract:The ongoing period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for Cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish Cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.
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Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic countries
2020Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Vitor Miranda, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:With their historically similar patterns of high and stable Cohort Fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic Fertility trends have strongly influenced Fertility theories. However, the period Fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high Fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether Nordic Cohort Fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline, and analyse to what extent it is attributable to tempo or to quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births, but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-thirties. Large-scale Fertility declines at ages above 30 have not been previously documented in these countries. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic Cohort Fertility will decline from two children for the 1970 Cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s Cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected Cohort Fertility, below 1.6, and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower Cohort Fertility decline. These findings suggest that the Nordic model of high and stable Fertility may need to be updated, and call into question the broader theories linking Fertility and gender equality. Keywords: Nordic Fertility regime, period Fertility, Cohort Fertility, Fertility timing, forecasting
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all time low period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Research Papers in Economics, 2019Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable Cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 Cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.
Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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all time low period Fertility in finland demographic drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Population Studies-a Journal of Demography, 2020Co-Authors: Mikko Myrskyla, Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica NisenAbstract:The ongoing period Fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total Fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010-17, and assess its consequences for Cohort Fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this Fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30-39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85-1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in Fertility, Finnish Cohort Fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low Fertility.
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Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic countries
2020Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Vitor Miranda, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:With their historically similar patterns of high and stable Cohort Fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic Fertility trends have strongly influenced Fertility theories. However, the period Fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high Fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether Nordic Cohort Fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline, and analyse to what extent it is attributable to tempo or to quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births, but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-thirties. Large-scale Fertility declines at ages above 30 have not been previously documented in these countries. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic Cohort Fertility will decline from two children for the 1970 Cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s Cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected Cohort Fertility, below 1.6, and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower Cohort Fertility decline. These findings suggest that the Nordic model of high and stable Fertility may need to be updated, and call into question the broader theories linking Fertility and gender equality. Keywords: Nordic Fertility regime, period Fertility, Cohort Fertility, Fertility timing, forecasting
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all time low period Fertility in finland drivers tempo effects and Cohort implications
Research Papers in Economics, 2019Co-Authors: Julia Ingrid Sofia Hellstrand, Jessica Nisen, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:In several European countries previously characterized by relatively high and stable Cohort Fertility, and particularly in the Nordic countries, period total Fertility rates (TFR) have declined since 2010. The largest of these declines has been observed in Finland, where the TFR reached an all-time low of 1.49 in 2017. We analyze the decrease in the TFR in Finland since 2010, and assess the consequences of this trend for the completed Fertility of women currently of childbearing age using complementary approaches that build on existing parametric and novel nonparametric methods. Decomposition of the Fertility decline shows that this trend has been close to universal, with all age groups and parities contributing, but with first-order births and ages 25-29 making the largest contributions. At older ages, we document an important qualitative shift in Fertility dynamics: for the first time since the early 1970s, women aged 30+ are experiencing a sustained Fertility decline. All of our forecasting methods suggest that Cohort Fertility is likely to decline from the 1.85-1.95 level that was reached by the 1940-1970 Cohorts, to a level of 1.75 or below among women born in the mid-1980s. The tempo-adjusted TFR also suggests that quantum change is driving the decline. These findings are evidence of a strong quantum effect, and are particularly striking because they call into question whether Finland will continue to be part of the Nordic Fertility regime, which has been characterized by high and stable Fertility.
Trude Lappegard - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe
European Journal of Population, 2020Co-Authors: Jessica Nisen, Lars Dommermuth, Trude Lappegard, Sebastian Klüsener, Johan Dahlberg, Aiva Jasilioniene, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Pekka Martikainen, Karel Neels, Bernhard RiedererAbstract:Educational differences in female Cohort Fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational Fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect Fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the Cohort Fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed Fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional Fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s Fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level Fertility analyses by education.
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Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe
European Journal of Population, 2020Co-Authors: Jessica Nisen, Lars Dommermuth, Trude Lappegard, Sebastian Klüsener, Johan Dahlberg, Aiva Jasilioniene, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Pekka Martikainen, Peng Li, Karel NeelsAbstract:Educational differences in female Cohort Fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational Fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect Fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the Cohort Fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed Fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional Fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s Fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level Fertility analyses by education.
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education gender and Cohort Fertility in the nordic countries
European Journal of Population-revue Europeenne De Demographie, 2019Co-Authors: Marika Jalovaara, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth, Johan Dahlberg, Gunnar Andersson, Gerda Neyer, Trude LappegardAbstract:Systematic comparisons of Fertility developments based on education, gender and country context are rare. Using harmonized register data, we compare Cohort total Fertility and ultimate childlessnes ...
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the two part gender revolution women s second shift and changing Cohort Fertility
Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 2018Co-Authors: Tomas Frejka, Frances K Goldscheider, Trude LappegardAbstract:The two parts of the gender revolution have been evolving side by side at least since the 1960s. The first part, women’s entry into the public sphere, proceeded faster than the second part, men’s entry into the private sphere. Consequently, many employed mothers have carried a greater burden of paid and unpaid family support than fathers throughout the second half of the 20th century. This constituted women’s “second shift,” depressing Fertility. A central focus of this paper is to establish second shift trends during the second half of the 20th century and their effects on Fertility. Our analyses are based on data on Cohort Fertility, male and female labor force participation, and male and female domestic hours worked from 11 countries in Northern Europe, Western/central Europe, Southern Europe, and North America between 1960/70 and 2000/2014. We find that the gender revolution had not generated a turnaround, i.e. an increase in Cohort Fertility, by the end of the 20th century. Nevertheless, wherever the gender revolution has made progress in reducing women’s second shift, Cohort Fertility declined the least; where the second shift is large and/or has not been reduced, Cohort Fertility has declined the most.
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education gender and Cohort Fertility in the nordic countries
Giornate di Studio sulla Popolazione 2017, 2017Co-Authors: Marika Jalovaara, Peter Fallesen, Lars Dommermuth, Johan Dahlberg, Gunnar Andersson, Gerda Neyer, Trude LappegardAbstract:How the educational Fertility differentials vary by gender and country context are of great interest but systematic comparisons are few. This study compares ultimate Fertility (Cohort Total Fertility, CTFR and childlessness) by gender and educational attainment for Cohorts born in 1940–1967/1972 in four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. We use harmonised longitudinal individual-level data drawn from population registers. The development of overall CTFR is similar in all countries with stability in ultimate Fertility. Previous increases in childlessness have levelled out, except for Finland. Educational CTF differentials vary by gender but are narrow; they are stable or increasing for men, while for women we find convergences. Men’s childlessness shows striking educational differences with highest levels for the lowest educated. In women’s childlessness, the educational gradient has turned from positive to negative in all Nordic countries. This study adds to the evidence of increasing gender equality in patterns in childbearing in the Nordic countries. The educational differentials of women have increasingly become similar to those of men. In contrast, we find clear evidence of widening social inequalities in family formation. The diminishing and increasingly marginalized group of the lowest educated apparently faces difficulties in entering parenthood.
Joshua R. Goldstein - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Bayesian forecasting of Cohort Fertility
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2014Co-Authors: Carl P. Schmertmann, Emilio Zagheni, Joshua R. Goldstein, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:There are signs that Fertility in rich countries may have stopped declining, but this depends critically on whether women currently in reproductive ages are postponing or reducing lifetime Fertility. Analysis of average completed family sizes requires forecasts of remaining Fertility for women born 1970–1995. We propose a Bayesian model for Fertility that incorporates a priori information about patterns over age and time. We use a new dataset, the Human Fertility Database (HFD), to construct improper priors that give high weight to historically plausible rate surfaces. In the age dimension, Cohort schedules should be well approximated by principal components of HFD schedules. In the time dimension, series should be smooth and approximately linear over short spans. We calibrate priors so that approximation residuals have theoretical distributions similar to historical HFD data. Our priors use quadratic penalties and imply a high-dimensional normal posterior distribution for each country's Fertility surface...
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new Cohort Fertility forecasts for the developed world rises falls and reversals
Population and Development Review, 2013Co-Authors: Mikko Myrskyla, Joshua R. Goldstein, Yenhsin Alice ChengAbstract:With period Fertility having risen in many low-Fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether Cohort Fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of Cohort Fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period Fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low-Fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long-term decline in Cohort Fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low Fertility. We document the marked increase of Cohort Fertility in the English-speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low-Fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.
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new Cohort Fertility forecasts for the developed world
Research Papers in Economics, 2012Co-Authors: Mikko Myrskyla, Joshua R. Goldstein, Yenhsin Alice ChengAbstract:The 1970s worries of the "population bomb" were replaced in the 1990s with concerns of population aging driven by falling birth rates. Across the developed world, the nearly universally-used Fertility indicator, the period total Fertility rate, fell well below two children per woman. However, declines in period Fertility have largely been an artifact of later – but not necessarily less – childbearing. We produce new estimates of the actual number of children women have over their lifetimes – Cohort Fertility – for 37 developed countries. Our results suggest that family size has remained high in many "low Fertility" countries. For example, Cohort Fertility averages 1.8 for the 1975 birth Cohort in the 37 countries for which average period total Fertility rate was only 1.5 in 2000. Moreover, we find that the long-term decline in Cohort Fertility has flattened or reversed in all world regions previously characterized by low Fertility. These results are robust to statistical forecast uncertainty and the impact of the late 2000s recession. An application of the new forecasts analyzing the determinants of Cohort Fertility finds that the key dimensions of development that have been hypothesized to be important for Fertility – general socioeconomic development, per capita income, and gender equality – are all positively correlated with Fertility for the 1970s Cohorts. Gender equality, however, emerges as the strongest determinant: where the gap in economic, political, and educational achievement between women and men is small, Cohort Fertility is high, whereas where the gap is large, Fertility is low. Our new Cohort Fertility forecasts that document the flattening and even reversal of Cohort Fertility have large implications for the future of population aging and growth, particularly over the long term.
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bayesian forecasting of Cohort Fertility
Research Papers in Economics, 2012Co-Authors: Carl P. Schmertmann, Emilio Zagheni, Joshua R. Goldstein, Mikko MyrskylaAbstract:There are already several documented examples of recent increases in Cohort Fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, Cohorts are too young to see if Cohort Fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed Cohort Fertility for Cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using Cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of Fertility, and using trends in the age-period-Cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which Fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that Cohort Fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low Fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.