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Brian J. Phillips - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Terrorist Group Rivalries and Alliances: Testing Competing Explanations
    Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2018
    Co-Authors: Brian J. Phillips
    Abstract:

    Terrorist Group rivalries and alliances have important consequences, but the sources of these relationships are debated. This article offers a side-by-side examination of correlates of Terrorist ri...

  • Do 90 Percent of Terrorist Groups Last Less than a Year? Updating the Conventional Wisdom
    Terrorism and Political Violence, 2017
    Co-Authors: Brian J. Phillips
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACTProminent scholars criticize terrorism research for lacking sufficient empirical testing of arguments. Interestingly, one of the most widely cited estimates in terrorism studies has not been evaluated using the many data sources now available. Rapoport’s 1992 claim, that perhaps 90 percent of Terrorist Groups last less than one year, has been described as part of the conventional wisdom. This estimate is frequently used to justify studies of Terrorist Group longevity, a substantial line of research in recent years. Is the estimate accurate? Scholars increasingly publish data sets of Terrorist organizations, but no one has analyzed them collectively to see if the 90 percent claim holds up. This article examines the eight largest global data sets of Terrorist Group longevity, covering 1968–2013. The samples vary considerably, but the percentage of Groups that do not survive beyond their first year in these relevant data sets is between 25–74 percent. Across all data sets, on average about 50 percent...

  • Enemies with benefits? Violent rivalry and Terrorist Group longevity
    Journal of Peace Research, 2015
    Co-Authors: Brian J. Phillips
    Abstract:

    Terrorist organizations often attack each other, but we know little about how this affects the involved Groups. Some states encourage or turn a blind eye toward Terrorist Group interorganizational violence, hoping that it destroys at least one of the Groups involved. This article argues that – contrary to the wishes of such governments – violent rivalries can contribute to the longevity of participating Terrorist Groups. Violent rivalries encourage civilians to take a side, inspire innovation, provide new incentives to Group members, and spoil peace talks. Some of these mechanisms should be especially likely between rivals of different political goals (interfield rivalries), instead of between rivals seeking the same primary goal (intrafield rivalries). Illustrative cases in Colombia and Northern Ireland show that the theorized mechanisms occur in diverse environments. Quantitative global analysis of Terrorist Groups from 1987 to 2005, using original data on interorganizational violence, suggests that vio...

  • Enemies with Benefits? Violent Rivalry and Terrorist Group Longevity
    2014
    Co-Authors: Brian J. Phillips
    Abstract:

    Terrorist organizations often attack each other, but we know little about how this affects the involved Groups. Some states encourage or turn a blind eye toward Terrorist Group interorganizational violence, hoping that it destroys at least one of the Groups involved. This paper argues that – contrary to the wishes of such governments – violent rivalries can contribute to the longevity of participating Terrorist Groups. Violent rivalries encourage civilians to take a side, inspire innovation, provide new incentives to Group members, and spoil peace talks. Some of these mechanisms should be especially likely between rivals of different political goals (inter-field rivalries), instead of between rivals seeking the same primary goal (intra-field rivalries). Illustrative cases in Colombia and Northern Ireland show that the theorized mechanisms occur in diverse environments. Quantitative global analysis of Terrorist Groups from 1987-2005, using original data on interorganizational violence, suggests that violent rivalries are generally associated with Group longevity. Further analysis suggests that when rivalries are disaggregated by type, only inter-field rivalries are positively associated with Group longevity. Participation in violent rivalry is never found to increase a Group’s chance of ending. The results suggest the importance of studying interorganizational dynamics, and raise questions about the notion of encouraging a violent rivalry as a way to hurt an involved Terrorist Group.

  • What Is a Terrorist Group? Conceptual Issues and Empirical Implications
    Terrorism and Political Violence, 2014
    Co-Authors: Brian J. Phillips
    Abstract:

    Researchers increasingly conduct quantitative studies of Terrorist Groups, which is an important advance in the literature. However, there has been little discussion of what constitutes a “Terrorist Group,” regarding conceptualization or measurement. Many studies of Terrorist Groups do not define the term, and among those that do, definitions vary considerably. The lack of clarity leads to conceptual confusion as well as sample selection issues, which can affect inferences. To address these issues, this article offers an in-depth analysis of the term and its use. It explores definitions in the literature, and then discusses different samples used. Empirically, the article demonstrates how sample selection can affect variable values. It also shows that a non-representative sample, such as the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list, can lead to inaccurate generalizations. Ultimately, I present a straightforward “inclusive” definition, and argue for its practicality. Other suggestions are made for a more e...

Liane Rothenberger - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a Terrorist Group s strategic communication the case of the red army faction
    International Journal of Strategic Communication, 2017
    Co-Authors: Liane Rothenberger
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACTRecent Terrorist attacks in Europe point to the intense terrorism-propaganda-connection that has been described by both communication and terrorism studies scholars. The current debate, however, neglects the fact that Europe, in the past, has already experienced attacks from Terrorist Groups that were accompanied by sophisticated public relations and propaganda, their motives, however, being social-revolutionary, not religious. Therefore, this article elaborates to what extent the Red Army Faction applied strategic communication in order to achieve its (political) goals. Theoretical considerations about the concepts of terrorism as propaganda of the deed, terrorism as a media event and Fourth Generation Warfare precede the case study. An important finding is that even though the RAF was indeed a very media-savvy Group at the time, this savviness did not help them to achieve their long-term goal of political revolution.

  • The discursive construction of Terrorist Group identity
    Terrorism and Political Violence, 2016
    Co-Authors: Liane Rothenberger, Kathrin M.a. Müller, Ahmed Elmezeny
    Abstract:

    ABSTRACTThe media coverage of Terrorist acts has been the subject of numerous scientific studies. However, the Terrorist Groups’ own communication perspectives have not been thoroughly researched. The following article deals with Terrorist Groups and their use of websites for identity building. We examine the discursive construction of Terrorist Group identity through critical discourse analysis (CDA). The CDA of online texts from websites of Terrorist Groups is based on a five macro-strategy scheme. Our sample consists of six Terrorist Groups, with each Group of two sharing different motivations: social-revolutionary, ethno-nationalist, or religious. All the Groups analyzed are listed as Terrorist organizations by the European Union. The CDA of 27 Terrorist websites, purposively sampled, was conducted using two coders per site. Through this analysis, the researchers draw conclusions on strategies employed by Terrorist organizations in building identity and how to counter their unregulated propaganda.

  • The Discursive Construction of a Religious Terrorist Group Identity
    Kultura (Skopje), 2014
    Co-Authors: Liane Rothenberger, Mihailo Kotarac
    Abstract:

    Terrorist Groups use their own websites in order to recruit novices, distribute propaganda and build a specific identity. In our paper we describe this form of strategic communication from a theoretical perspective and then expose the methodological design and results of a critical discourse analysis by which we examined texts from the websites of Hezbollah, Gama’a al-Islamiyya and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Findings show that the Groups use different strategies of identity building. However, the strategies of construction and justification play a major role in each Group.

Khusrav Gaibulloev - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Terrorist Group location decision: an empirical investigation
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2014
    Co-Authors: Khusrav Gaibulloev
    Abstract:

    This article explores the determinants of Terrorist Groups’ location choice. A conditional logit estimator is applied to data consisting of 525 Terrorist Groups and 113 potential base countries of operation. The analysis shows that the number of existing Groups in a country increases the probability of a Terrorist Group choosing the country as a base of operations. More important, Terrorist Groups are more likely to locate in a country where existing Groups share similar ideology with the entrant, particularly for left-wing Terrorist Groups. A country’s political instability and/or state failure raise the chances that a Terrorist Group will locate there. Terrorist Groups are more likely to base their operations closer to the venues of their planned Terrorist attacks. Terrorist Groups locate their base country of operation nearer to their planned venue countries.

  • Terrorist Group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations
    Public Choice, 2011
    Co-Authors: S. Brock Blomberg, Khusrav Gaibulloev, Todd Sandler
    Abstract:

    Terrorist Group survival, Terrorist tactics, Terrorist Groups’ ideology, Panel estimates, Cross-sectional estimates, D74, C41, H56,

  • Terrorist Group survival ideology tactics and base of operations
    Public Choice, 2011
    Co-Authors: Brock S Blomberg, Khusrav Gaibulloev, Todd Sandler
    Abstract:

    The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of Terrorist Group duration. Our sample includes 367 Terrorist organizations that operated during 1970–2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these Groups’ survival include their tactics, sizes, ideological basis, regions of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are reported. Terrorist organizations fare better if they are larger in size, diversify their attack modes, are animated by religiosity rather than secular political goals, and base their operations in the Middle East or Africa. Groups’ longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.

Karl R Rethemeyer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • comparative configurational analysis as a two mode network problem a study of Terrorist Group engagement in the drug trade
    Social Networks, 2014
    Co-Authors: Ronald L Breiger, Eric W Schoon, David Melamed, Victor Asal, Karl R Rethemeyer
    Abstract:

    Abstract We generalize a form of two-mode network analysis to make it applicable to a cases-by-variables data format, and apply our approach for the study of Terrorist Group engagement in the drug trade, emphasizing the implications of our approach for policy in a study of 395 Terrorist organizations. Based on the organizations’ levels of resources, network connectivity to other Groups, ideological emphasis, and participation in multiple illicit economies, we identify several distinctive configurations of factors that lead to multiple types of drug activity. We also demonstrate a technique for assessing sampling variability in configurational models.

Aaron Mannes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • testing the snake head strategy does killing or capturing its leaders reduce a Terrorist Group s activity
    Social Science Research Network, 2008
    Co-Authors: Aaron Mannes
    Abstract:

    Since the attacks of 9/11 the search for effective counter- terror strategies has become an urgent priority for policy makers. Dr. Audrey Kurth Cronin, a Professor at the National War College, has argued that the United States has made numerous missteps in developing counter-terror strategies because of its limited experience with the phenomenon.i Quantitative tests on databases of Terrorist activity can help us examine the effects of various strategies in order to determine their degree of impact. One strategy that is considered to be effective by conventional wisdom is “decapitation” – the tactic of removing the leadership of Terrorist organizations. Besides its presumed efficacy, the decapitation strategy is also pursued as a matter of justice and in order to reassure the society targeted by Terrorists that its government is taking action on its behalf. This paper tests the effectiveness of the decapitation strategy in terms of the reduction of Terrorist activity.